What is the Special Intensive Revision (SIR)?

The Special Intensive Revision is a comprehensive overhaul of the electoral roll, where voter verification is done from scratch. This is different from the regular annual summary revision that accounts for new voters, deaths, and migration. The Election Commission of India (ECI) has ordered this for Bihar, and now it will be implemented in 12 states and UTs, including West Bengal.

Since 1951 to 2004, it has been done 8-times. The last SIR was done in 2002-2004.

विशेष गहन संशोधन (SIR) भनेको के हो?

विशेष गहन संशोधन भनेको मतदाता सूचीको पूर्ण पुनरावलोकन हो, जहाँ मतदाता प्रमाणीकरण शून्यबाट सुरु गरिन्छ। यो वार्षिक सारांश पुनरावलोकनभन्दा फरक हुन्छ, जसमा नयाँ मतदाता थप्ने, मृत्यु भएका व्यक्तिहरू हटाउने, र स्थानान्तरण भएका व्यक्तिहरूको विवरण अद्यावधिक गर्ने गरिन्छ। निर्वाचन आयोग (ECI) ले यो प्रक्रिया बिहारमा सुरु गरेको छ र र अब यो १२ राज्यहरू तथा संघीय क्षेत्रहरूमा लागू गरिनेछ, जसमा पश्चिम बङ्गाल पनि समावेश छ।

सन् १९५१ देखि २००४ सम्म यो ८ पटक गरिएको छ। अन्तिम एसआईआर सन् २००२-२००४ मा गरिएको थियो।

Why is the 2002 Voter List Important?

The 2002 voter list is a significant document. If your name was on the 2002 electoral roll, you are already considered a valid voter in India, and generally, no further proof of citizenship is required by the Election Commission. You would only need to submit the relevant page from the 2002 electoral roll as proof.

२००२ को मतदाता सूची किन महत्वपूर्ण छ?

२००२ को मतदाता सूची एक महत्वपूर्ण दस्तावेज हो। यदि तपाईंको नाम २००२ को मतदाता सूचीमा समावेश छ भने, तपाईंलाई भारतको मान्य मतदाता मानिन्छ र सामान्यतया नागरिकता प्रमाणित गर्न अन्य थप कागजात आवश्यक पर्दैन। तपाईंले २००२ को मतदाता सूचीको सम्बन्धित पृष्ठ मात्र पेश गर्नुपर्छ।

Required Documents Based on Year of Birth:

The required documents may vary based on your date of birth. Here is a likely scenario based on the process in other states:

• Born before January 1, 1987: If your name is in the 2002 electoral roll, a copy of that page is sufficient. Otherwise, you will need to provide one of the specified documents to prove your eligibility.
• Born between January 1, 1987, and January 1, 2002: You will need to provide one of the specified documents for yourself. Additionally, if your father’s or mother’s name is on the 2002 electoral roll, a copy of that page will suffice. Otherwise, one of the specified documents for either parent will be required.
• Born after January 1, 2002: You will need to provide one of the specified documents for yourself. For both parents, if their names are on the 2002 electoral roll, you need to submit a copy of that page. If not, one of the specified documents for each parent will be necessary.

जन्म मिति अनुसार आवश्यक कागजातहरू:

जन्म मिति अनुसार आवश्यक कागजातहरू फरक पर्न सक्छन्। अन्य राज्यहरूमा लागू प्रक्रियाका आधारमा सम्भावित अवस्था यस्तो हुन सक्छ:

• १ जनवरी १९८७ भन्दा पहिले जन्मिएकाहरू: यदि तपाईंको नाम २००२ को मतदाता सूचीमा छ भने, त्यसको प्रतिलिपि पर्याप्त हुन्छ। नभएमा, तपाईंले निर्दिष्ट कागजातहरू मध्ये कुनै एक पेश गर्नुपर्ने हुन्छ।
• १ जनवरी १९८७ र १ जनवरी २००२ बीच जन्मिएकाहरू: तपाईंले स्वयम्‌का लागि निर्दिष्ट कागजात पेश गर्नुपर्ने हुन्छ। साथै, यदि तपाईंका बुबा वा आमा २००२ को मतदाता सूचीमा छन् भने, त्यसको प्रतिलिपि पर्याप्त हुन्छ। नभएमा, बुबा वा आमामध्ये एकजनाका लागि निर्दिष्ट कागजात पेश गर्नुपर्ने हुन्छ।
• १ जनवरी २००२ पछि जन्मिएकाहरू: तपाईंले स्वयम्‌का लागि निर्दिष्ट कागजात पेश गर्नुपर्ने हुन्छ। साथै, दुबै अभिभावकको नाम २००२ को मतदाता सूचीमा भएमा तिनको प्रतिलिपि पेश गर्नुपर्ने हुन्छ। यदि छैन भने, दुबै अभिभावकका लागि निर्दिष्ट कागजात आवश्यक पर्छ।

What is the Enumeration Form?

Every person aged 18 and above who wishes to be included in the voter list must fill out an enumeration form. This form will be provided by the Booth Level Officer (BLO) or can be filled out online through the NVSP (National Voter Service Portal).

गणना फारम (Enumeration Form) के हो?

१८ वर्ष वा सोभन्दा बढी उमेर भएका हरेक व्यक्तिले मतदाता सूचीमा नाम समावेश गराउन गणना फारम भर्नुपर्छ। यो फारम बुथ तहका अधिकृत (BLO) मार्फत दिइनेछ वा राष्ट्रिय मतदाता सेवा पोर्टल (NVSP) बाट अनलाइन भर्न सकिनेछ।

Common Concerns and Solutions:

• Change in EPIC Number: If your EPIC (Elector’s Photo Identity Card) number has changed since 2002, there is no need to worry. The Election Commission can link your old and new numbers.
• Spelling or Date of Birth Errors: Minor errors in the 2002 electoral roll are generally not a cause for concern, especially if your current EPIC has the correct information. For significant errors, you can use one of the alternative documents with the correct details.
• Address Change (especially for women after marriage): Even if your address has changed, if your name was on the 2002 electoral roll, you are still considered a valid voter. You just need to provide the relevant page from the 2002 list.
• Applying from outside the state: The enumeration form can be filled out online through the NVSP portal once the process officially begins in West Bengal.
• Documents and photos can also be uploaded online.

सामान्य चिन्ता र समाधानहरू:

• EPIC नम्बर परिवर्तन भएको छ भने:
  यदि २००२ यताका वर्षहरूमा तपाईंको मतदाता परिचय पत्र (EPIC) नम्बर परिवर्तन भएको छ भने चिन्ता लिनुपर्ने आवश्यक छैन। निर्वाचन आयोगले पुरानो र नयाँ नम्बरलाई आपसमा जोड्न सक्छ।
• नामको हिज्जे वा जन्म मिति त्रुटि:
  २००२ को सूचीमा साना गल्तीहरू सामान्यतया ठूलो समस्या मानिँदैन, विशेष गरी तपाईंको हालको EPIC कार्डमा सही विवरण छ भने। तर यदि गम्भीर त्रुटि छ भने, तपाईंले सही विवरण भएको वैकल्पिक कागजात प्रयोग गर्न सक्नुहुन्छ।
• ठेगाना परिवर्तन (विशेष गरी विवाहपछिको महिलाहरूका लागि):
  यदि तपाईंको ठेगाना परिवर्तन भएको भए पनि, तपाईंको नाम २००२ को मतदाता सूचीमा समावेश छ भने, तपाईं अझै मान्य मतदाता मानिनुहुन्छ। तपाईंले त्यसको प्रतिलिपि मात्र पेश गर्नुपर्छ।
• अन्य राज्यबाट आवेदन दिने:
  पश्चिम बंगालमा प्रक्रिया सुरु भएपछि गणना फारम NVSP पोर्टलमा अनलाइन भर्न सकिनेछ। आवश्यक कागजातहरू र फोटोहरू पनि अनलाइन अपलोड गर्न सकिनेछ।

2002 VOTERS LIST – To download, click on the link below

Those from Darjeeling can check 2002 list here: DARJEELING

Those from Kalimpong can check 2002 list here: KALIMPONG

Those from Kurseong can check 2002 list here: KURSEONG

Those from Siliguri can check 2002 list here: SILIGURI

Those from Phansidewa can check 2002 list here: PHANSIDEWA

Those from Mal can check 2002 list here: MAL BAZAR

Those from Kalchini can check 2002 list here: KALCHINI

Those from Madarihat can check 2002 list here: MADARIHAT

Those from Nagrakata can check 2002 list here: NAGRAKATA

Those from Kumargram can check 2002 list here: KUMARGRAM

Those from Alipurduar can check 2002 list here: ALIPURDUAR

Those from Falakata can check their 2002 list here: FALAKATA

Those from Dhupguri can check their 2002 list here: DHUPGURI

Those from Nagrakata can check their 2002 list here: NAGRAKATA

Those from Mainaguri can check their 2002 list here: MAINAGURI

Those from Kranti can check their 2002 list here: KRANTI

Those from Jalpaiguri can check their 2002 list here: JALPAIGURI

Those from Rajganj can check their 2002 list here: RAJGANJ

Those from Chopra can check their 2002 list here: CHOPRA

The post Special Intensive Revision – A basic intro appeared first on The Darjeeling Chronicle.

In 2024 General Elections, the contest was between two major party – BJP and TMC, however, the contest had been made interesting by the entry of individuals, who are popular on social media. The interesting equation was made further interesting by the entry of Kurseong MLA Bishnu Prasad Sharma, who entered the fray against his own party BJP’s official candidate Raju Bista.

Here are some key take away from the results:

• In total, 13,24,266 valid votes were cast
• The winning BJP candidate Raju Bista has received 6,79,331 votes
• Second place TMC candidate Gopal Lama has received 5,00,806 votes
• The winning margin is 1,78,525 votes

Votes Less Than NOTA

• Only three candidates, Raju Bista, Gopal Lama, and Munish Tamang have managed to get more votes than None of the Above (NOTA) – marked in blue
  • Rest of the candidates have secured less votes than NOTA
  • Among them is the incumbent Kurseong MLA Bishnu Prasad Sharma, who has garnered less than half the votes secured by NOTA

Jamanat Jabt – Forfeiture of Deposits

• Out of the fourteen candidates, 12 candidates (marked in green) have forfeited their security deposits
• When contesting elections, candidates have to deposit Rs 25000 as deposit (half for ST/ST candidates)
• If any candidate fails to secure less than 1/6^th of the total votes polled, then their “security deposit” is forfeited
• So, everyone other than Raju Bista and Gopal Lama, including Congress Candidate Munish Tamang, and incumbent Kurseong MLA Bishnu Prasad Sharma have had their “Jamanat Jabt”

BJP Won All Assembly Constituencies, Other Than Chopra

• Keeping with the trends of 2019 and 2021, TMC has lost in all Assembly Segments in Darjeeling Lok Sabha constituency, other than Chopra
  • Overall, BJP has registered the highest winning margin in Matigara Naxalbari Assembly Constituency with 83955 votes
• • In the hills, the highest winning margin for BJP is from Kurseong with 38507 votes
• In Chopra, TMC has defeated by a margin of 92131 votes

Postal Ballots

• Out of a total of 𝟒𝟓𝟑𝟓 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐝 𝐏𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐯𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐬 were cast, out of which,
• 𝟔𝟏 choose to vote for NOTA – perhaps indicates the frustration of the salaried class against the existing set of politicians.

The post 2024 General Elections: Darjeeling LS Constituency – A Summary appeared first on The Darjeeling Chronicle.

There is no mention of PPS, or inclusion of 11 left-out Gorkha sub-tribes as Schedule Tribes.

Is this the alternative Gorkhas need?

You can check the full manifesto here: https://www.bjp.org/bjp-manifesto-2024

Here are the highlights of BJP’s Sankalp Patra

• To continue to provide free ration for the next five years under PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana.
• Continuation of free and quality health care
• To expand PM Awas Yojana
• To expand our efforts to protect the garib ki thali by becoming Atmanirbhar in the production of pulses, edible oils and vegetables
• Extensive use of technology to reduce the wastage of water
• Expansion of PM Ujjwala Yojana
• Promises provide free electricity to poor households under PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana.
• On real estate – Aims to build 3 crore more houses for the poor; to work at a fast pace to provide households with affordable piped gas. Make new satellite towns in the country and will launch bullet trains in North , east, south India
• On Disaster – A comprehensive strategy for disaster management and resilience in the Himalayan states is pledged due to the fragile ecosystem and increased natural disasters.
• On Jobs – Expand Bharat’s top-tier startup ecosystem to tier-2 and tier-3 cities.
• Transform Bharat into a global centre for high quality services including tourism to generate high value and diverse employment opportunities nationwide.
• On healthcare – Every elderly person above the age of 70 years will be brought under the ambit of Ayushman Yojana.
• For ST – 740 Eklavya Model Residential Schools will be established to prioritize the education of tribal children
• Every senior citizen above the age of 70 years, whether poor, middle class or upper middle class, will get free treatment up to Rs 5 lakh. Proposes Ayushman Arogya Mandir network.
• On Education – Introduce more Medical colleges, IITs, IIMs, AIIMS and other such institutes. We will launch internship programmes to blend academic and practical skills.
• On environment – Develop more green spaces like parks, playgrounds etc., revive water bodies like lakes and ponds and develop other natural spaces to make cities more adaptable, sustainable and people-friendly
• On women empowerment: Empower three crore rural women to become Lakhpati Didis. Empower women Self-Help Groups (SHGs) with the skills and tools in key service sectors like IT, healthcare, education, retail and tourism with an aim to increase their income.

The post BJP Manifesto Silent on Gorkha Aspirations appeared first on The Darjeeling Chronicle.

Congress Manifesto fails to mention anything about Gorkhas, 11 Gorkha ST or even Sixth Schedule status

The Indian National Congress today released their 47-page manifesto, which covers almost every issue concerning our nation. Except for what matters to us the most – Gorkha aspirations.

Even though Hamro Party Chief Ajoy Edwards, who is apparently very close to Congress President Mallikarjun Khadgey and the Nehru family scion Rahul Gandhi, and had even met them to insert Gorkha issues in Congress Manifesto, the manifesto committee seems to have largely ignored his requests.

While Congress has promised full statehood to Puducherry, restoration of full statehood to Jammu and Kashmir, and inclusion of Ladakh into Sixth Schedule of the Indian Constitution, it has failed to mention any issues related to the Gorkhas.

There is no mention of Darjeeling, or even inclusion of 11 left-out Gorkha sub-tribes as Schedule Tribes.

Is this the alternative Gorkhas need?

You can check the full manifesto here: https://www.inc.in/media/manifesto

Top 14 points from Congress manifesto

• National minimum wage at Rs 400 per day
• Mahalakshmi scheme to provide Rs 1 lakh per year to every poor Indian family
• Abolish contractualisation of regular jobs in govt, PSUs and ensure regularisation of such appointments
• Allegations against persons who were allowed to escape law after joining BJP will be probed
• Launch urban employment programme guaranteeing work for urban poor in reconstruction, renewal of urban infrastructure
• Abolish Agnipath programme and direct Armed Forces to resume normal recruitment to achieve full sanctioned strength
• New right to apprenticeship act to provide one year apprenticeship to every diploma holder or graduate below age of 25
• Legal guarantee to MSP announced by govt every year as recommended by Swaminathan Commission
• Will fill nearly 30 lakh vacancies in sanctioned posts at various levels in central govt
• Rajasthan model of cashless insurance of up to Rs 25 lakh will be adopted for universal healthcare
• Ten per cent quota in jobs, educational institutions for EWS will be implemented for all castes, communities without discrimination
• Pass constitutional amendment to raise 50 per cent cap on reservations for SC, ST and OBC
• Nationwide socio-economic and caste census
• Appeal to people to look beyond religion, language, caste; choose wisely and install democratic government

The post Congress Manifesto Silent on Gorkha Aspirations appeared first on The Darjeeling Chronicle.

The All India Trinamool Congress received ₹1,609.50 crore (12.6%) via this route followed by the Congress ₹1,421.9 crore (11.1%), the second and third biggest parties in terms of encashment in the period.

What is most interesting for our region is that Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) led by Chief Minister P.S Golay encashed Rs 36.50 crores worth of electoral bonds, which is more than Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) at Rs 30.50 cr, Janasena Party at Rs 21 cr, Samajvadi Party at Rs 14.10 crore and Jananata Dal (United) at Rs 14 crore.

Interestingly, the main opposition party in Sikkim, the Sikkim Democratic Front led by former Chief Minister Pawan Chamling, has also encashed electoral bonds worth Rs 5.5 crores.

In the data released, there are 1,260 companies and individuals that purchased electoral bonds worth ₹12,769 crore. The top 20, all companies, accounted for ₹5,945 crore—or nearly half of the total amount donated through electoral bonds.

The Election Commission of India (ECI) has put up the full list of donors who purchased electoral bonds and the political parties that encashed them. The State Bank of India (SBI) had disclosed this information to the ECI on March 12. The Supreme Court had directed the ECI to host this information on its website by March 15.

The SBI supplied this data in two sets. The first set contains the date of purchase of each Electoral Bond, the name of the purchaser of the bond, and the denomination of the bond purchased. In total 22,217 bonds were purchased between April 1, 2019 and February 15, 2024

Here is the full list of Parties and the bonds they encashed:

The post Electoral Bonds : BJP Tops Encashment List, SKM Encashed MORE THAN NCP, SP, JDU appeared first on The Darjeeling Chronicle.

However, it was a somewhat unfamiliar trend to fight the election under national party banner for MLA seat, as for better part of Darjeeling history the legislative assembly election was fought by regional political parties.

Nevertheless, it proved to be a masterstroke by the BJP, GNLF, and GJMM (Bimal) faction to capitalize on the strong feeling of resentment against the former Chairman of BoA, GTA, Mr. Binoy Tamang who has been accused of letting people down by allying with the TMC led state government. The strong undercurrent feeling against Tamang was finally revealed through ballots, and the silent voters suddenly became vocal about their desire.

No boasting of organizational strength, muscle flexing and allurement could sway the mood of silent voters who were determined to vote against Mr. Tamang. How, why, and what went wrong with their strategies may be the subject of review meeting of GJMM (Binoy) faction, but the writing is clear on the wall- that people have outrightly rejected them.

How far the influence of renegade leader Mr. Bimal Gurung helped to swing this election in BJP ‘s favor is a matter of speculation that would be open very soon. Politicians make strange bedfellows they say, and this has been proved in the hills in the prevailing political scenario, now the question is how would an alliance comprising of former sworn enemies GJMM and GNLF take up the political issues unitedly. If political maturity and sagacity prevail over the parochial interest of parties, then it would be the finest hours for hill people, when they will be united putting aside ideological differences and rising above the prejudices of their own parties. Gorkha community would win as a complete unit and send a unified message to both the state and center.

Now, the sudden transition towards nationalism from regionalism poses interesting questions. Specific regional demand for Gorkhaland statehood has been put to the back burner after many years to be replaced by the more euphemistic, vague and comprehensive term “permanent political solution“, which is open to subjective interpretation of every Tom, Dick, and Harry.

Nationalism was born due to colonial experience when the country had to unite regardless of differences in religion, language, culture, ethnicity, and culture to fight British imperialism. Post-independence, nationalism was threatened by rising regionalism, most prominent case stating formation on a linguistic basis. Subnationalism began to pour into the plural polity of India. The violent agitation in Tamil Nadu against the imposition of Hindi as a national language, clamor for new states all posed a threat to the national unity.

The unique trait of our constitution to provide for a federal unity that accommodated myriad of differences of language, region and religion were attributed to political thought during the freedom struggle, and this unique feature has been debated a lot today. Any subnational movement is viewed as a secessionist and anti-national movement by the state ignoring the causes deep-rooted to regionalism, a case in point is the 1986 Gorkhaland agitation in the eyes of West Bengal, which later was clarified by the PM late Rajiv Gandhi that it was not an anti-national movement.

Federalism is not just about state’s rights or regional autonomy, it is also about an equitable sharing of power and voice in decision making at an all-India center. Now the NDA has a clear majority, and I hope its mandate does not turn into majoritarianism that seeks to impose uniformity from above and respect federal space that seeks to forge national unity from below. Real nationalism, for me, would be a reflection of multiple regional identities of a diverse country like ours in harmony, and in that reflection, I want to see our separate state.

Writes: Saakal Ulysses Dewan

The post Election 2019: Darjeeling Shifts from Regionalism to Nationalism appeared first on The Darjeeling Chronicle.

Data that we have gathered shows that, TMC could not win even in a single booth, let alone a ward in these two municipalities.

In fact, two of the tallest TMC/BT faction leaders from the hills Mirik Municipality Chairman LB Rai, and current GTA Chairman Anit Thapa, couldn’t help Amar Singh Rai win even in their respective booths. Imagine a scenario, where they don’t have the trust or support of people from their own neighbourhood, yet are leading constitutional bodies.

In case of LB Rai he was at least elected to the body, we are unable to fathom, why or how Anit Thapa is being allowed to continue as GTA Chairman? or rather, why has GTA not been dissolved yet?

Given the poll results its clear, there is not a single booth where TMC could register any win, hence, do those who are occupying the posts of Councillors, Chairman, Vice Chairman etc in Kurseong and Mirik Municipalities deserve to remain in their chair?

If they have any shame left, they will resign en-mass, and pave way for proper public representatives to replace them.

We are compiling data for Kalimpong and Darjeeling Municipalities, if anyone can share the data with us, please email it to: thedarjeelingchronicle@gmail.com

The post Why Kurseong and Mirik Municipality Councillors Should Resign appeared first on The Darjeeling Chronicle.

When Trinamool Congress came to power in Bengal, they rode on the popular sentiments of being pro-farmers and pro-middle class.

Their dedicated fight in favour of the farmers, and against the CPI(M) in Nandigram and Singur had helped them catch popular fancy. Everyone from writers to poet, to film personalities, to common people joined the grassroots movement started by TMC.

But in a very short period of time people realized that TMC was not capable of providing good governance. However, they held onto power using brute force.

This time around, TMC has lost the pivot around which their foundations were based – the farmers, and the salaried class.

With the farmers they couldn’t provide any alternative to their distressed economic status, and with the salaried class, West Bengal is currently two salary increments behind than the Center.

While Center has already implemented 7th pay commission, WB govt employees are still struggling under the 5th pay commission.

This anger finally surfaced in this election. All the salaried people who couldn’t vote directly, voted via postal ballots. How the ballots were cast itself tells a story.

In Darjeeling, out of the total 7145 postal ballots, 75% or 5410 salaried class voted for BJP, where as in the general voting BJP got 61%, which means more educated and salaried class people voted for BJP in Darjeeling Constituency, than the general public.

In comparison, TMC only received 831 votes or 11% of the votes, where as in general voting TMC had received 26% of the votes.

This trend has held across Bengal.

Given this anger, surely, the upcoming 2021 Vidhan Sabha elections could very well see the obliteration of TMC from the state

The post BJP got 75% of Postal Votes, TMC Only 11% in Darjeeling appeared first on The Darjeeling Chronicle.

Raju Bista won the MP elections while Neeraj Zimba won the by-elections, both with a huge mandate. It may be recalled here that the BJP has promised in their ‘Sankalp Patra’ to provide a permanent solution to the issue of the Gorkhas, including granting them ‘scheduled tribe’ status. The victory is also seen as a public mandate to the historic alliance between GNLF and GJM of Bimal faction. With the coming together of GJM and GNLF, two of Gorkhaland’s strongest proponents, there is a new excitement among the people on how the alliance will deliver. 

In an added bonus to the BJP, the party also won all Lok Sabha constituencies in North Bengal including Alipurduars, Jalpaiguri, and Cooch Behar. Gorkha voters have a strong presence in these constituencies and the impact of the alliance could be felt across the region. John Barla, the famous tea garden leader won the Alipurduars seat with a huge margin as well.

Darjeeling General Assembly seat

A total of 1267270 voters had used their voting rights this elections. 

Raju Bista, the MP candidate polled 744657 votes (59.09 %) while his nearest rival candidate from TMC, Amar Singh Rai polled 335793 (26.65%). Sankar Malakar of the INC was a distant third with 64744 (5.14%) votes, followed by Saman Pathal of the CPIM with 50446 (4%) votes.

With this win, the Darjeeling MP Raju Bista also become the candidate with the highest vote margin in all of West Bengal.

Assembly By-elections

The total number of voters in the constituency are 142322

Neeraj Zimba, the BJP candidate polled 87896 (61.8%) votes while Binoy Tamang, an Independent candidate backed by TMC stood second with 41611 (29.18%). Amar Lama of JAP came a distant third with 3233 (2.27%) votes. 

Ironically, the Darjeeling MLA seat was left vacant after Amar Rai reigned the assembly seat to contest the MP elections, which he lost badly. The by-elections were called to fill the vacated seat by him the assembly. 

The post Elections 2019: Raju Bista and Neeraj Zimba Trounce TMC candidates appeared first on The Darjeeling Chronicle.

Elections in 2019 are a different ball game altogether, and the factors influencing the elections are some of the most extreme. We have done our best to analyze all the influencing factors and this is what we are projecting to happen tomorrow.

Our Inferences

Please note that this is an ACADEMIC EXERCISE and not GOSPEL TRUTH… we do this to test our own understanding of the situation, and we are sharing the results so that we could hear from you all, what you make of our inferences.

• There are a total of 234997 eligible voters in Darjeeling Vidhan Sabha seat, out of which roughly 62% or 145698 individuals voted. 
• We expect Independent Candidate Swaraj Thapa to poll around 8% – We have attributed him high numbers based on traditional CPRM + Congress vote banks. CPRM polled around 5% in 2016 MLA elections, and Congress around 2% in 2011. We expect Mr. Thapa to attract an additional 1%.
• Independent candidate Sarada Rai Subba is expected to poll around 2.5%. This because Ms. Subba shared a good image and rapport with TMC supporters before she was unceremoniously removed from the party. Many in TMC are unhappy with having to vote for Binay Tamang. Ms. Subba thus attracts those TMC voters who would have otherwise voted for BJP or some other candidate, but not Binay Tamang. Her personal rapport among some sections of the masses will account for additional votes for her.
• We are expecting CPIM candidate KB Wattar to poll around 3%. In the 2011 MLA elections, CPIM had polled around 3.48% from Darjeeling LS Seat. Given that CPIM is a staunch cadre-based party, we expect Mr. Wattar to retain his votes, with a slightly reduced margin.
• We expect GRC candidate Amar Loksom to poll around 1.5% votes. In 2016 polls GRC had polled 2.33% and we expect this figure to go down this year.
• We expect JAP candidate Amar Lama to poll in around 4% of the votes. We have attributed him higher % owing to the fact that among the urban voters, he is seen as someone with intellect and clean image. His personal outreach and public image should garner him a respectable number of votes.
• We have accorded 2% votes to ABGL candidate Biplov Rai, as he is a fresh face in a very old and dying party. Majority of the votes he will poll, will be because of residue public sympathy for Late Madan Tamang. His own party leader Pratap Khati canvassing against him didn’t help his cause.
• We have accorded 1% votes to Independent Candidate Sanjay Thakuri, as we feel his own family and friend circle will vote for him and 1% was the least we could attribute. 
• The most interesting and significant battle in Darjeeling Vidhan Sabha seat is between TMC supported Binay Tamang and BJP candidate Neeraj Zimba
• Despite lack of turnout of urban voters, for 2019 Darjeeling Vidhansabha seat, we are projecting a very tight race, with BJP Candidate Neeraj Zimba having a slim lead over his closest competitor Binay Tamang.
• In 2016 MLA elections, TMC had polled in 28.53% of the votes, which had included TMC core cadres + JAP + GNLF votes.
• Given that in 2011, GNLF had polled 9.11% votes, we can safely assume that in 2016 – out of the 28.53% votes TMC had polled , JAP votes were at 1% and 10% were GNLF votes. TMC core votes being around 17%.
• This implies, that in 2019 – TMC votes will account for not more than 10% of the total votes polled. This is because post Gorkhaland agitation TMC has lost cadre base, and hardcore TMC supporters who are unhappy with Binay Tamang will shift their votes to Sarada Rai Suba. This translates to around 14000 votes in favor of Binay Tamang from TMC side.
• Since the MP elections, GNLF cadre base has grown significantly as compared to earlier years, so they are expected to poll around 20% of core votes. This translates to roughly 28000 votes for Neeraj Zimba
• The remaining 43% votes – which are core GJM voters, we have attributed 60% votes to Mr. Binay Tamang, and only 40% votes to Mr. Neeraj Zimba
• However reduced TMC votes, and increased GNLF votes are expected to give Mr. Zimba a lead of roughly around 1900 votes.
• We have attributed around 4.5% NOTA votes, this is because a large section of the youths are very unhappy with the political situation, and they want to make their statement felt. In 2014 MP elections NOTA votes stood at around 2%, whereas in 2016 MLA elections it stood at 4% for Darjeeling Vidhan Sabha seat. We have attributed a 0.5% increase in NOTA votes.
• However, we expect that any deviation from the NOTA votes will benefit Neeraj Zimba, rather than Mr. Binay Tamang as he is seen as the face of the system. 

Once again, we request our readers to see this as an ACADEMIC EXERCISE. Though we expect this analysis to hold, we concede that uncertainty is what makes politics so exciting. We will be humbled if proven right, but if we are proven wrong, we apologize in advance, and assure you we will learn from our mistakes and do our best to improve our analysis.

We thank everyone involved with this analysis and wish all the candidates good luck.

The post Elections 2019: Darjeeling Vidhan Sabha Poll Projections: TheDC Analysis appeared first on The Darjeeling Chronicle.