The voters have no clarity of options to choose from the list of candidates given the (in)credibility or their issue- based manifesto. Ideological differences and political conundrum have led to further obfuscation of the whole spectrum of voting process. Political retaliatory theory for who did what in the past has polluted the thought process of majority of the clear thinking populace. Even as this insensibility persists, other polarising views suggest that religious nationalistic agenda is afoot amid certain section of educated elite which in this scenario is not unreasonable.

 Let’s analyse some of the chronological occurrences that have contributed to this bizarre situation and impasse.

During the last agitation in 2017, TMC or rather it’s supremo Mamata didi wreaked havoc in the hills in connivance with police force and administration while trying to crush the agitation that was increasingly becoming violent and uncontrollable. A number of agitators were brutalised, shot at, killed and scores arrested. Thousands flee their homes. A spate of state sponsored violence and persecution forced top-rung leaders to go underground.

Stringent criminal act such as UAPA was slapped on Gurung and his coterie forcing him and his men to remain in hiding and be incommunicado for over three years. Conversely some feeble -minded turncoats through chicanery and subterfuge, shifted their allegiance to Didi to enjoy freedom and power till recent EC dictat. Thus agitation died an agonising death.

Meanwhile, few months ago, Bimal Gurung suddenly dramatically surfaced in Kolkata and in a press conference announced his severance of longstanding ties with saffron party, literally fawning before Didi singing paeans to support her in hustings, surprising many and evoking stinging trolls in the hills. This hugely changed the equation vis-a-vis other stakeholders. His trusted friends deserted him as in the past opting for greener pastures. The idea of retaliatory bashing to Didi through hustings for how she persecuted hill people is gaining currency. Now clearly this abrupt change in political perspective has pushed sensible people to the corner, bursting to the seams.

The inevitable questions doing the rounds in social media etc. would be something like the following: –

• Should we vote for candidates supporting BJP (GNLF, CPRM, ABGL etc.) with the sole aim of punishing Mamata for her role in crushing our legitimate demands, ignoring BJP’s equally questionable lies and passive stance which now stand exposed after Gurung’s unceremonious departure? Freshly resurrected GNLF, supporting BJP, seems to be embroiled in internal differences with a frontline powerful leader Ajay Edward openly rebelling against party president’s decision in fielding candidates in Darjeeling constituency ignoring his candidature. The insensitivities disappeared somehow but resonance persists. Such an action without rhyme and reason would amount to perversion. The most crucial and topical issues should hinge on assurances and betrayal, our safety, development, job opportunities, price rise, constitutional rights and freedom at national level that dog our society and nation and not on personal aggrandisement.

• Should we vote for either of the 2 factions of GJMM? They have announced their allegiance to Didi who has so far unilaterally manoeuvred her way into the core of this divided house. Will their allegiance change if we vote for either of the two factions, dividing their votes thereby helping BJP gain more vote shares paving way for their ideological defeat? These narratives are based only on conscientious assumptions amongst politically savvy and erudite voters. Other than this, pattern of casting votes will depend mostly on personal ethos and individual reckoning which invariably reek of bias and prejudice. Here it is important to scrutinize and ascertain how Gurung’s entry in the fray with his assurance of alliance with Didi albeit his meek Gorkhaland gimmicks, can determine and influence voting pattern. There is this Binoy faction with strong support base to reckon with. Has Bimal Gurung unwittingly committed political harakiri by dumping his mentors at the wrong time? Or is there any guarantee that Binay & Co. will also not jump ship, as their won’t is, in the event of BJP coming to power?

• Irrespective of how the game is played out, one thing is for sure. Conscious voters shall be hugely impacted and influenced by the dramatic occurrences unfurling in the political arena of the two predominant parties pitted against each other in Kolkata. This election in the hills will be watched with intrigue as mere three seats could make a difference to both stakeholders. All the voters who can make a conscious decision will be caught between a proverbial rock and hard place. Fight for your right by casting your votes to individuals who you believe can uphold your self-esteem and dignity which at the moment seem moribund.

Writes: Ashok Waiba

The post An Election without Passion appeared first on The Darjeeling Chronicle.

Elections in 2019 are a different ball game altogether, and the factors influencing the elections are some of the most extreme. We have done our best to analyze all the influencing factors and this is what we are projecting to happen tomorrow.

Our Inferences

Please note that this is an ACADEMIC EXERCISE and not GOSPEL TRUTH… we do this to test our own understanding of the situation, and we are sharing the results so that we could hear from you all, what you make of our inferences.

• There are a total of 234997 eligible voters in Darjeeling Vidhan Sabha seat, out of which roughly 62% or 145698 individuals voted. 
• We expect Independent Candidate Swaraj Thapa to poll around 8% – We have attributed him high numbers based on traditional CPRM + Congress vote banks. CPRM polled around 5% in 2016 MLA elections, and Congress around 2% in 2011. We expect Mr. Thapa to attract an additional 1%.
• Independent candidate Sarada Rai Subba is expected to poll around 2.5%. This because Ms. Subba shared a good image and rapport with TMC supporters before she was unceremoniously removed from the party. Many in TMC are unhappy with having to vote for Binay Tamang. Ms. Subba thus attracts those TMC voters who would have otherwise voted for BJP or some other candidate, but not Binay Tamang. Her personal rapport among some sections of the masses will account for additional votes for her.
• We are expecting CPIM candidate KB Wattar to poll around 3%. In the 2011 MLA elections, CPIM had polled around 3.48% from Darjeeling LS Seat. Given that CPIM is a staunch cadre-based party, we expect Mr. Wattar to retain his votes, with a slightly reduced margin.
• We expect GRC candidate Amar Loksom to poll around 1.5% votes. In 2016 polls GRC had polled 2.33% and we expect this figure to go down this year.
• We expect JAP candidate Amar Lama to poll in around 4% of the votes. We have attributed him higher % owing to the fact that among the urban voters, he is seen as someone with intellect and clean image. His personal outreach and public image should garner him a respectable number of votes.
• We have accorded 2% votes to ABGL candidate Biplov Rai, as he is a fresh face in a very old and dying party. Majority of the votes he will poll, will be because of residue public sympathy for Late Madan Tamang. His own party leader Pratap Khati canvassing against him didn’t help his cause.
• We have accorded 1% votes to Independent Candidate Sanjay Thakuri, as we feel his own family and friend circle will vote for him and 1% was the least we could attribute. 
• The most interesting and significant battle in Darjeeling Vidhan Sabha seat is between TMC supported Binay Tamang and BJP candidate Neeraj Zimba
• Despite lack of turnout of urban voters, for 2019 Darjeeling Vidhansabha seat, we are projecting a very tight race, with BJP Candidate Neeraj Zimba having a slim lead over his closest competitor Binay Tamang.
• In 2016 MLA elections, TMC had polled in 28.53% of the votes, which had included TMC core cadres + JAP + GNLF votes.
• Given that in 2011, GNLF had polled 9.11% votes, we can safely assume that in 2016 – out of the 28.53% votes TMC had polled , JAP votes were at 1% and 10% were GNLF votes. TMC core votes being around 17%.
• This implies, that in 2019 – TMC votes will account for not more than 10% of the total votes polled. This is because post Gorkhaland agitation TMC has lost cadre base, and hardcore TMC supporters who are unhappy with Binay Tamang will shift their votes to Sarada Rai Suba. This translates to around 14000 votes in favor of Binay Tamang from TMC side.
• Since the MP elections, GNLF cadre base has grown significantly as compared to earlier years, so they are expected to poll around 20% of core votes. This translates to roughly 28000 votes for Neeraj Zimba
• The remaining 43% votes – which are core GJM voters, we have attributed 60% votes to Mr. Binay Tamang, and only 40% votes to Mr. Neeraj Zimba
• However reduced TMC votes, and increased GNLF votes are expected to give Mr. Zimba a lead of roughly around 1900 votes.
• We have attributed around 4.5% NOTA votes, this is because a large section of the youths are very unhappy with the political situation, and they want to make their statement felt. In 2014 MP elections NOTA votes stood at around 2%, whereas in 2016 MLA elections it stood at 4% for Darjeeling Vidhan Sabha seat. We have attributed a 0.5% increase in NOTA votes.
• However, we expect that any deviation from the NOTA votes will benefit Neeraj Zimba, rather than Mr. Binay Tamang as he is seen as the face of the system. 

Once again, we request our readers to see this as an ACADEMIC EXERCISE. Though we expect this analysis to hold, we concede that uncertainty is what makes politics so exciting. We will be humbled if proven right, but if we are proven wrong, we apologize in advance, and assure you we will learn from our mistakes and do our best to improve our analysis.

We thank everyone involved with this analysis and wish all the candidates good luck.

The post Elections 2019: Darjeeling Vidhan Sabha Poll Projections: TheDC Analysis appeared first on The Darjeeling Chronicle.

The 2019 Elections signaled a new political beginning in the Darjeeling hills as well. Nobody had imagined that GJM (Bimal) and GNLF would come together to fight the elections together. The GJM-GNLF alliance gave an upper hand to the BJP that was fighting against massive anti-incumbency sentiments. The test for the newly formed BJP-GJM-GNLF alliance was put through another test when the by-elections for Darjeeling were announced for 19th May. The alliance stuck together and fielded their consensus candidate for MLA seat as well.

TheDC announces its 2019 Opinion Poll based on what our readers have voted on the online poll we ran on our Social Media platforms.

General Elections 2019

For the MP Elections, the contest was between BJP’s Raju Bista and Amar Rai, the TMC candidate backed by GJM (Binoy faction).

• Total votes polled: 4.8K
• Amar Singh Rai, TMC – 884 votes (19%)
• Raju Bista, BJP – 3.8 K votes (81%)

Darjeeling By-elections

The MLA by-election was a close contest between the consensus candidate fielded by the BJP-GNLF-GJM (Bimal) alliance, Neeraj Zimba and the former GTA BoA Chairman, Binoy Tamang supported by the TMC. Benoy Tamang stepped down from his erstwhile position as the Chairman of GTA to fight this by-poll.

• Total votes polled: 4.5K
• Binay Tamang – 863 votes (19%)
• Neeraj Zimba – 3.6K votes (81%)

The post Elections 2019: NDA set to retain Darjeeling Seats, suggests Opinion Poll appeared first on The Darjeeling Chronicle.

Addressing an election rally in Kurseong, Mamata paid a verbal tribute to “GTA Chairman, jhukharu neta, GJM ka President Bimal Gurung.” It wasn’t until someone in the crowd who could muster enough courage to correct her and shouted “Binay Tamang” that others followed suit to. Once the chorus grew louder, those sitting on the dias including TMC Leader Aroop Biswas and Anit Thapa reaches out to Mamata to correct her. Without missing a beat, Mamata said “Tamang hi to bola tha”, and turned around to look at Binay Tamang incredulously. We cannot make out what was exchanged between the two, but Mamata seems to be asking, “are you sure, you are not Bimal Gurung?”

But that wasn’t the only gaffe she made. She also said there should be a memorial in the North Bengal hills to honour the Gorkha regiment of the Indian armed force.

“After the elections, once the model code of conduct is over, we will hold discussions to seek solutions to safeguard and respect the Gorkha identity. We feel a memorial should be set up in the Hills to honour the Gorkha Regiment.”

Many be Ms Banerjee is not aware, the hills already have a Gorkha War Memorial at Batasey to honour our rallies martyrs, and also a Gorkha War Museum at Bheri Khan to honour the legacy of Gorkha regiment.

But gaffe or no gaffe, no one was even a bit embarrassed, afterall who would dare correct someone’s who has brought “peace and development” to our hills?

Jai Gorkha, Jai Hind

The post Mamata Freudian Slip Doesn’t Leave Anyone Embarrassed appeared first on The Darjeeling Chronicle.

During the framing of the constitution, the Bordoloi committee recommended the excluded areas of Assam province to be included in the Sixth Schedule of the constitution while the AV Thakker committee recommended the scheduled areas and tribal areas in any state other than Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram to be brought under the Fifth Schedule of the constitution. And legally Darjeeling was a candidate to be brought under Fifth Schedule by virtue of being a partially excluded area.

Our people have to wake up from the political slumber to get an insight of the working behind these state machinations that employed census as one important tool to achieve its objectives. For the Britishers, census joined the map and museum as tools of imperial dominance in the 19th century. The British fondness for taxonomy and social classification continued to be in evidence throughout their rule, and was formalised by means of the census they undertook first in 1872, and then every 10 years from 1881, converting it into ethnographic census in 1901. This census reconfirmed the process of defining castes, allocating certain attributes such as “martial tribes” as is the case with our Gorkha community.

The British belief in the fighting qualities of the martial races restricted the career possibilities of those not so classified, since British army recruitment policies were usually based on caste classification, shining example being Gorkha regiment.

Census taking in British India was led by British anthropologists to anatomize Indian society to control and govern it better. According to historians, the precolonial communities had imprecise boundaries which meant the communities were not self-conscious in the way they became under colonial rule and were less antagonistic to each other over perceived communal differences. Communal classification served the interest of the colonisers by providing them with a tool to create perceptions of difference between groups to prevent unity amongst them.

The colonial process of identity creation stretched to form linguistic identities, the fact which formed the basis of State Reorganisation Commission on drawing boundaries of new states. It is keeping with such divisive policies that the Britishers sowed the seed of Hindu Muslim rift to curb nationalism, partitioned Bengal, introduced Communal Award in 1932. And it is in such circumstances that the Gorkha population residing in the Darjeeling Hills were classified as “Hill tribes” in 1931. This fact forms one basis for inclusion of hill communities under both Fifth and Sixth Schedules of our constitution.

Even after setting up of Tribes Advisory Council in West Bengal in 1953, the question of whether Darjeeling was administered under the provisions of the Fifth Schedule is still nebulous to the laymen. In regional semi-autonomous bodies like the DGHC and GTA, there is no mention of this schedule, thus pointing to the fact that they lack constitutional safeguards as clamoured by GNLF.

Projecting the population of Nepali speaking population as only 19% in Darjeeling by the then CM of West Bengal, Dr B C Roy had nipped the aspirations of hills in bud before the State Reorganisation Commission, and as if to rub salt on the wound, he went to proclaim Bengali as official language of the state in 1961. This fact only justified the saying that “There are lies, damn lies and there are statistics”.

State machination has totally wrecked the dreams of the native hill people over the years. Having realised that the semi-autonomous body like DGHC could not fulfil the aspirations of the people, the then GNLF leader Late Subash Ghising had to revisit the 1931 census to bring the region under Sixth Schedule of the constitution to provide the much needed constitutional safeguards to the hill people. However, the then prevailing political circumstances not only derailed the passage of the Sixth Schedule Bill but also dethroned the uncrowned king of the hills for good. Riding on the people’s emotion and wish for own state, Bimal Gurung started agitation for a separate state which again culminated into another body in the form of GTA. Since this body is also bereft of any constitutional safeguards, the idea of Fifth Schedule by the incumbent administrator of GTA has triggered mixed reactions from different quarters. The schedules being the bailiwick of constitutional experts have become a hard nut to crack for common people.

How the present administrator will leverage politically by toying with an idea of Fifth Schedule is yet to be seen as the issue is bound to invite criticism from various quarters in the light of recommendations of National Commission to Review the Working of the Constitution which says that Fifth Schedule areas should be brought under Sixth Schedule and also the PESA Act, 1996, Panchayats (Extension to the Scheduled Areas) Act that seek to expand the constitutional provisions of Panchayati Raj system in such areas. At present nine states have Fifth Schedule areas, viz. Andhra Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Gujarat, HP, Jharkhand, MP, Maharashtra, Odisha and Rajasthan. Nevertheless, the issue of Fifth Schedule in Darjeeling Hills have ruffled the political feathers and would make an interesting academic /legal exercise for one and all.

The post The Politics of Census and Schedules appeared first on The Darjeeling Chronicle.

Following a central committee meeting, held at Sterling Resorts in Ghoom, Mr. Binay Tamang was appointed as the Party President, and Mr. Anit Thapa was appointed as the General Secretary.

Mr; Binay Tamang has said that soon they will be fulfilling all the vacant posts and give shape to the organizational structure of GJM under him.

Prominent among those who have been suspended for six months are:
1. Bimal Gurung
2. Roshan Giri
3. Asha Gurung
4. Swaraj Thapa
5. Prakash Gurung
6. Priyabardhan Rai
7. Barudh Thapa
8. Bhaskar Rai
9. Anmo Thapa
10. Sanjeev Subedi

For video please visit:

https://www.facebook.com/TheDarjeelingChronicle/videos/971030803034701/

The post JUST IN: Binay Tamang Announces Removal of Bimal Gurung as GJM President appeared first on The Darjeeling Chronicle.